Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 46.056563 52.871485 59.960488 67.853580 76.365527 85.239290 95.160401
2024-10-20 35.061015 44.503159 54.904693 67.081213 80.817666 95.716953 112.983256
2024-10-27 27.799149 38.326599 50.465086 65.220411 82.411261 101.570474 124.305141
2024-11-03 24.768026 36.476795 50.464475 67.950619 88.799349 112.478186 141.030352
2024-11-10 21.938668 34.430075 49.858721 69.642610 93.716266 121.505782 155.471597
2024-11-17 18.464194 31.118034 47.328185 68.679153 95.208393 126.336204 164.893844
2024-11-24 15.555266 28.196222 44.989010 67.683764 96.437941 130.682720 173.613100
2024-12-01 13.516193 26.231616 43.693627 67.834762 98.939071 136.451599 183.950108
2024-12-08 11.785089 24.502105 42.546048 68.036820 101.396884 142.095572 194.094959
2024-12-15 10.428825 23.174406 41.824657 68.698090 104.362864 148.317084 204.918978
2024-12-22 8.814713 21.230876 40.070982 67.837681 105.268189 151.916666 212.503965
2024-12-29 7.945365 20.410767 39.868474 69.038826 108.819375 158.802941 224.124702
2025-01-05 7.172328 19.683005 39.772544 70.395353 112.622862 166.093132 236.379141
2025-01-12 6.014363 18.093891 38.248626 69.648554 113.570771 169.736479 244.108254
2025-01-19 4.787447 16.152864 36.009925 67.737326 112.840695 171.152030 248.990655
2025-01-26 4.567619 16.220973 36.991581 70.533239 118.535538 180.873314 264.359673
2025-02-02 4.183804 15.881437 37.267693 72.264807 122.764929 188.707328 277.374354
2025-02-09 3.418056 14.549967 35.781526 71.278807 123.177038 191.532743 284.019564
2025-02-16 2.755273 13.301121 34.329684 70.259981 123.479857 194.171997 290.401192
2025-02-23 2.327096 12.537681 33.669024 70.414543 125.407097 198.940312 299.509921
2025-03-02 1.958397 11.839116 33.067901 70.621364 127.383795 203.764478 308.695144
2025-03-09 1.681555 11.331716 32.779918 71.298186 130.022010 209.471818 319.034981
2025-03-16 1.305071 10.378698 31.561637 70.417531 130.363896 212.071415 325.331947